PK Ventures

Pakistan external debt tracker

Debt

This debt is a national burden. PK Ventures uses it as an advocacy baseline for building productive capacity, exports, disciplined capital, and useful companies from home.

Current baseline

USD 92B

Public external debt excluding foreign-exchange liabilities, as of March 31, 2026.

Baseline

Start with the burden we can name.

Illustrative trajectory1This is not a forecast or progress measure. It is a PK Ventures advocacy illustration of the debt burden and a possible direction of travel.

The real question is whether the line bends upward.

Spending takes the country deeper into the valley. Growth is the path that can outgrow the burden.

Budget pressure

42.9%

Interest payments take 42.9% of planned FY2026-27 federal expenditure.

Current debt valley

Spending and interest pull the burden below zero.

Current pressure

Continued pressure keeps the country in the valley.

Growth path

Productive capacity bends the line upward over time.

PK Ventures is trying to affect the green path by building productive capacity, exports, useful companies, finance talent, and operating systems.

Current valley

USD 92B

USD 92B below zero

Current public external debt target, as of March 31, 2026.

Per-person illustration

USD 567

162M people under 301Advocacy illustration only. This is not an issued security, liability allocation, contribution request, or payment plan.

The current baseline divided by Pakistan's estimated under-30 population. This cohort is separate from PK Ventures Team eligibility.

Growth target

2040

Outgrow the burden

Productive capacity and exportable services are the PK Ventures contribution to a wider debt response.

2040 aspiration

On our shoulders. Gone by 2040.

This is a PK Ventures advocacy aspiration, not a government forecast. We take the selected public external debt baseline, place a 2040 horizon beside it, and turn it into a daily number we can build against.

Illustrative cohort

162M

Pakistan residents under 30: 67% under 30 of a 241M population base.

Per person

USD 567

Illustrative amount, not a personal liability.

Annualized illustration

USD 38

Evenly spread through 2040; not a payment schedule.

Daily illustration

USD 0.10

An advocacy benchmark for productive capacity.

Advocacy illustration only: the March 2026 public external debt baseline divided by the estimated under-30 population, then spread evenly through 2040. It is not a forecast, security, liability allocation, contribution request, or payment plan.

Debt holders

Who we owe.

The Ministry of Finance table totals USD 92.9B at December 2025. The headline baseline is USD 91.7B at March 2026. The dates differ, so this holder mix is directional context rather than a March allocation.

As of December 2025

Holder categoryAmountShare

Multilateral

World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and other multilateral lenders.

USD 44B

47%

Bilateral / Paris Club

Country-to-country and Paris Club development financing.

USD 24B

26%

IMF

Programme-related IMF claims outstanding.

USD 10B

11%

Commercial Loans

Commercial bank loans and related external commercial financing.

USD 7B

7%

Euro / Sukuk Bonds

International bond and sukuk obligations.

USD 6B

7%

NPCs / Others

Naya Pakistan Certificates and other external public debt items.

USD 2B

2%

Total public external debt

USD 93B

100%

Creditor categories follow the Ministry of Finance external public debt table. They are not the broader total external debt and liabilities measure.

Within multilateral creditors, the Ministry of Finance identifies the World Bank and Asian Development Bank as the two largest creditors.

Read the note on what the burden meansRead why dollars are not enough

Context

Productive growth is necessary, not sufficient

Debt dynamics depend on productive growth, the fiscal primary balance, and financing costs.

PK Ventures focuses on productive capacity because builders can contribute through better organizational systems, exportable products and services, and disciplined companies that are easier to trust, finance, and scale.

Peter Fisher's growth components

Economic growth
=Changes in total hours worked+Changes in productivity*+New investment spending

* AI factor — PK Ventures thesis: AI will affect both bracketed levers—hours worked and productivity. If those gains are large enough, they could create the possibility of high economic growth and make catch-up less constrained by new investment spending, especially for emerging economies such as Pakistan that have yet to converge with peers. This is not part of Fisher's original formula or a forecast.

The work ahead

The work will be hard. We will learn from others with confident humility. But we will never be discouraged by criticism.

Let them debate the probability of our success

We will remain resolute in our intentions and efforts

Explore insights

Start with one step

Strengthen us with your support

We use this only to follow up about PK Ventures and portfolio opportunities.

Footnotes

  1. [1]SBP Monthly Statistical Bulletin, March 2026 - Table 5.4 shows USD 91.721B public external debt excluding foreign-exchange liabilities and USD 137.558B total external debt and liabilities as of March 31, 2026.
  2. [2]SBP economic data index - Lists Pakistan external debt and liabilities outstanding as a quarterly dataset updated May 12, 2026.
  3. [3]Finance Division Budget in Brief 2026-27 - Table 1 shows PKR 8.054T interest payments and PKR 18.771T total federal expenditure, making interest 42.9% of planned FY2026-27 federal expenditure.
  4. [4]Ministry of Finance Debt Bulletin 1HFY-2026 - Provides the December 2025 public external debt creditor breakdown used for the holder mix.
  5. [5]Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25 population chapter - Reports the 2023 population at about 241M, with 67% of the population under 30 and 26% between 15 and 29.
  6. [6]Pakistan Bureau of Statistics census summary - Lists the 7th Population and Housing Census 2023 total population as about 241M.
  7. [7]Asofondos 2024 session featuring Peter Fisher - Lists Peter Fisher's session on solutions to saving and aging challenges at the 17th Asofondos Congress.
  8. [8]Peter Fisher, Saving and Aging presentation deck - Slide 4 presents economic growth as changes in total hours worked plus changes in productivity plus new investment spending.
  9. [9]IMF AI Preparedness Index - Explains that AI can increase productivity and economic growth while outcomes differ with infrastructure, skills, policy, and preparedness.
  10. [10]World Bank Digital Progress and Trends Report 2025 - Describes AI productivity opportunities and the connectivity, compute, context, and competency foundations developing economies need to benefit.